202109251155 Desire vs expected outcome in decision making
Before doing something, ask yourself two questions:
- If I do this thing, what do I want to happen?
- If I do this thing, what do I expect to happen?
You may be surprised that you're doing something based on what you want but not what is likely.1 We should strive to be rational when we make decisions whose outcomes are important to us. We should be realistic and understand the differences and biases that we bring to the table when we have an investment in a desired outcome.
Obviously, there are things in life that are good to do based on what you want to happen even if it's risky. However, we should be aware of the risk and prepared for what may come if it doesn’t turn out how we want it to.
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Thorpe, E. (2017, January 24). A Man for All Markets. ↩