202110220853 Second-order thinking

Second-order thinking is the process of going beyond the immediate impact of a decision or event.

For example, if the USA shifts to renewable energy and electric cars in the 2020s, we'll have no need to be allied with Saudi Arabia anymore. This is a first-order consequence. Going further, we can see that things like a Saudi-Iranian war or general instability in the middle east could come from the dissolution of that alliance. Take it another step — if China and other East Asian cultures aren't able to modernize to renewable energy and electric transport in a similar time-span and the middle east's oil production is destabilized, then their economies could be disrupted. The possibilities in that event are vast and wide-ranging.¹

Here’s the thing about electric cars: they are better than regular cars. They have lower fuel costs. They have fewer moving parts and thus lower maintenance costs. They have higher low-end torque and faster acceleration. If you mainly drive to and from work and have a charger at home, you never have to stop for gas. Electric cars will win because they are better, and the shift will happen suddenly.

A list of specific 202211020929 Second-order thoughts about the 2020s.