202402171520 Ask questions to assess the validity of a model

Whenever you’re confronted with a scenario, as yourself questions to help you decide how good of a representation of reality the model is — but always remember 202203210830 When your model and reality conflict, reality is always right.¹

Some questions that might be helpful:

• Are the driving factors likely to unfold this way? Models of dynamic systems are usually not designed to predict what will happen. Rather they’re designed to explore what would happen if a number of driving factors unfold in a range of different ways.
• If they did, would the system react this way? Regardless of whether you think the driving factors will do something, would the system actually behave like that if they did?
• What drives the driving factors of the system? Who watches the watchmen?